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Air Cargo Forecast: What Factors Will Determine the Global Freighter Fleet and Market Demand?

Reports source:跨境电商物流百晓生 author:Winni 2024-11-19 Page View:51
Introduction:Boeing has released its "2024-2043 World Air Cargo Forecast," while Airbus has published its "2024 Global Market Forecast," offering insights and analyses on the future of the global air cargo market and fleet sizes.

 This article shares selected highlights from these reports, with full versions available by scanning the QR code at the end.


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Image Source: Boeing

 

Boeing: Large Widebody Freighters Will Double, and Asia-Pacific Fleet Will Triple

 

Air cargo plays an indispensable role in global trade due to its reliability, speed, and security. While approximately 99% of global trade by weight involves low-value bulk commodities transported via maritime shipping (e.g., oil, metals, and grains), air cargo typically handles high-value, time-sensitive goods, representing about 35% of global trade by value, even though it accounts for less than 1% of global trade by volume.

 

Air cargo is divided into two primary types: express and general cargo. In recent years, e-commerce has emerged as a significant third category, with notable overlap with the first two.

 

Freighters are crucial to the global air cargo market. While widebody passenger aircraft provide ample belly cargo capacity on major routes, about 54% of global air cargo (measured in cargo ton kilometers, CTKs) is transported via dedicated freighters. In 2023, airlines operating freighters captured 90% of the industry’s total air cargo revenue.

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The primary advantages of freighters include:

- Most passenger networks do not cover key air cargo hubs.

- Widebody passenger flight schedules often do not meet shippers' requirements.

- Hazardous materials and oversized cargo cannot be stored in passenger aircraft belly holds.

- Passenger aircraft payload-range limitations may restrict cargo transport.

 

The 2019 pandemic highlighted the critical role of freighters in global trade. As passenger flights were significantly reduced, 60-70% of global air cargo traffic was transported by freighters between 2020 and 2023.


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 Air Cargo Market Outlook


At the start of 2023, global economic uncertainty posed significant challenges to the air cargo market. However, driven by surging demand for Chinese e-commerce goods, the market experienced a strong recovery in the second half of 2023, a trend that has continued into 2024. Despite short-term volatility in the past year, the air cargo industry has demonstrated long-term resilience, with an average annual growth rate of 2.6% over the past two decades, despite several downturns.


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Boeing’s outlook for the air cargo industry is closely tied to global GDP growth, which is expected to grow by 2.6% annually over the next 20 years. South Asia, China, Southeast Asia, and Africa will lead this growth as their economies develop and mature. Global trade and industrial production will also drive air cargo, with expected annual growth rates of 2.9% and 2.2%, respectively.

 

Another significant factor driving future air cargo growth is supply chain diversification. The pandemic exposed the vulnerability of single-source supply chains, prompting manufacturers to spread their operations and supply chains across other parts of Asia.

 

E-commerce and express network growth will further boost air cargo demand. The entry of new e-commerce players in the second half of 2023 and into 2024 has significantly accelerated this growth, highlighting the importance of air cargo's unmatched speed in serving the digital economy.

 

By 2029, global e-commerce revenue is projected to grow at an annual rate of around 9%, with emerging markets in South Asia and Southeast Asia leading the way. Air cargo networks will play a key role in this expansion.

 

Based on these factors, Boeing forecasts that from 2024 to 2043, global air cargo traffic (measured in CTKs) will grow by an average of 4.0% annually, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% using 2019 as the base year.

 

In 2023, express companies accounted for 18% of the entire air cargo industry's traffic. This segment is expected to grow at an annual rate of 5.8%. Due to express carriers' greater flexibility in handling express, general, and e-commerce cargo, they are expected to outpace the overall industry growth, increasing their market share to 25% by 2043. However, other types of operators will continue to play a crucial role in e-commerce transportation as e-commerce cargo becomes more concentrated.


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Global Freighter Fleet Forecast

 

The global freighter fleet is expected to grow to 3,900 aircraft by 2043, a two-thirds increase from the 2,340 freighters in 2023. Demand in the rapidly growing Asian market will drive a near doubling of large widebody freighters. Of the 2,845 freighters to be delivered, about 45% will replace retiring aircraft, while the rest will expand the fleet to accommodate projected traffic growth.


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The freighter fleet forecast translates anticipated passenger traffic growth into demand for dedicated freighters. These aircraft, which currently carry more than half of global air cargo, are expected to continue playing a significant role. Freighters are classified by payload capacity (in tons), with further distinctions between factory-built freighters and converted passenger aircraft.

 

- Standard-body freighters have a payload capacity of under 40 tons and are nearly all converted aircraft.

- Medium widebody freighters have a capacity of 40 to 80 tons, with factory-built and converted freighters each accounting for about half.

- Large widebody freighters have a payload capacity of over 80 tons.

 

While large freighters have traditionally been a mix of factory-built and converted aircraft, Boeing forecasts future demand will shift toward factory-built models.

 

Large widebody freighters account for over three-quarters of the global freighter fleet's available ton kilometers (ATKs), with the remainder split between medium widebody and standard-body freighters.

 

Asia-Pacific and North America are expected to require the largest number of freighter deliveries, with the Asia-Pacific fleet projected to nearly triple. The region will need the largest number of deliveries (980 aircraft), followed closely by North America (955 aircraft), with these two regions accounting for over two-thirds of global deliveries.

 

About one-third of freighter demand will come from Asia-Pacific airlines, reflecting the growth of cross-border e-commerce traffic, supply chain diversification, and the region’s rising cargo needs. North American carriers will receive another third of the projected deliveries, with over 70% of these freighters used to replace aging aircraft.


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Airbus: 2024 Global Market Forecast

 

The air transport industry has demonstrated resilience.


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GDP, trade, and population growth are key drivers of air traffic growth.

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Air transport is closely linked to economic development and geography.

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GDP and trade expansion support the outlook for air cargo.

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Express air cargo is expected to grow faster than general air cargo.

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By 2043, the global freighter fleet is forecast to reach 3,360 aircraft.


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To access Boeing's "2024-2043 World Air Cargo Forecast" or Airbus's "2024 Global Market Forecast," scan the QR code below for a free download!

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WeChat Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng


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