In the past few years, major platforms like SHEIN, TEMU, TIKTOK, and AliExpress have collectively expanded overseas, driving the rapid growth of direct shipping logistics lines and air cargo parcel volumes. With more and more small packages opting for air freight, the current global capacity of dedicated cargo aircraft is struggling to support the rapid future growth of cross-border e-commerce. The lack of growth in air cargo capacity is becoming a serious challenge.

Moreover, in the next five to ten years, dozens of planes will be retired annually, while dozens of new planes will be put into service. This will lead to a relatively balanced market for global air cargo capacity, with little increase expected. In this market of limited supply, where will the growth come from for cross-border e-commerce or direct shipping logistics? This is something every company needs to think deeply about.

Without an increase in air cargo capacity, direct shipping e-commerce platforms and sellers using this model will also struggle to achieve growth, further causing logistics companies specializing in small package delivery to lose growth opportunities as well. This is why in 2024, all top and mid-tier direct shipping small package logistics companies have seen minimal volume growth. In fact, some companies have experienced significant declines in volume due to segmented procurement by e-commerce platforms.

This trend reveals a harsh reality: whoever controls more core air cargo resources will be able to secure a larger share of the direct shipping market. As a result, the entire direct shipping logistics sector is evolving into a battle over air cargo resources. Without sufficient air cargo capacity, companies will find it difficult to reach customers. The limited upstream supply of cargo capacity restricts small package logistics companies from expanding their customer base at the terminal end.

Given the current industry situation, with limited growth in upstream capacity and rapidly increasing downstream demand, there are fewer and fewer logistics companies with core air cargo resources. Therefore, in the near future, sellers using the direct shipping logistics model can no longer choose logistics companies based on old criteria. Instead, they must deeply bind themselves to logistics companies that possess core air cargo resources. Only with stable cargo space, chartered flights, or their own air capacity can sellers ensure that more of their orders are transported overseas via air packages, securing smooth fulfillment of logistics.

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WeChat Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng