Just this week, ocean freight rates to the U.S. West Coast have dropped below $2,000 for some shipping lines. This marks a dramatic shift from just a month ago, when in early June, rates had surged to nearly $6,000 before plunging to around $2,000 today — a threefold drop in just one month.

The root of this sharp price fluctuation can be traced back to mid-May. At that time, China and the U.S. reached an agreement to mutually reduce tariffs. In the two weeks that followed, from late May to early June, freight rates to the U.S. West Coast skyrocketed from just over $2,000 to nearly $6,000. June 1 marked a turning point, as the rates began a steep decline after the brief shipping rush subsided, with prices collapsing rapidly ever since.

Now, the market’s biggest question is: Will there still be a peak season for trans-Pacific shipping this year? Traditionally, the months of July to September are the peak season for ocean freight. If rates remain sluggish over the next 2–3 months, it’s likely there won’t be a strong peak season in 2025 either.

But on the other hand, major year-end shopping events like Black Friday and Christmas are just around the corner. Surely retailers will need to restock soon — won’t they? This real demand stands in stark contrast to today’s depressed rates, adding further uncertainty to the outlook for the trans-Pacific shipping market.

Are we witnessing the collapse of the traditional peak season cycle? Or is the market quietly preparing for a new wave of change? Only time will tell.

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WeChat Official Account: Cross-Border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng