Steven Wang: Over the past three years, the pandemic has kept air freight rates at high levels, fueling increasingly strong expectations for further rate hikes.

Platforms like SHEIN and TEMU ship tens of thousands of tons of cross-border e-commerce parcels globally via air freight every day, especially to Europe and North America. This ongoing demand is driving market expectations for major cargo airlines upward. For example, the temporary charter rates for routes from China to Europe and the U.S., using aircraft like the 747 or 777, have surged to $700,000 to $800,000 per flight.

All industry players—e-commerce platforms, airlines, freight forwarders—are aware that the current air freight capacity is insufficient, and aircraft resources are scarce. This is why contract rates for next year's full-year Block Space Agreements (BSAs) are approaching RMB 40 per kilogram for Europe and have skyrocketed to around RMB 45 per kilogram for U.S. routes. The stakes are continuously rising.

E-commerce platforms have already secured more than half of the available air freight capacity and aircraft resources on the market in advance, locking in relatively stable costs for these logistics resources. For platforms with growing order volumes, they are increasingly relying on a semi-fulfillment model that combines sea freight and overseas warehouses. A significant amount of traffic is also shifting toward this semi-fulfillment approach.

Many e-commerce platforms are gradually directing their traffic toward the "semi-fulfillment" model, reducing their subsidies and traffic investments in the "full-fulfillment" model. As rising order volumes could further drive up freight rates, platforms are actively reducing their dependence on air logistics by increasing their investments in sea freight and overseas warehouses.

Therefore, by securing more air freight capacity in advance, e-commerce platforms are ensuring that logistics costs for their existing orders remain relatively controllable. For future growth in order volumes, they are pinning their hopes on the semi-fulfillment model that combines sea freight and overseas warehouses. This dual approach helps platforms gain greater control over their logistics operations, and it will directly influence the supply-demand dynamics and price trends in the air freight market.

It’s time for high air freight rates to cool down. Excessively high rates will dampen e-commerce platforms' enthusiasm for investing in resources and capital for direct air shipping, which will, in turn, push them to shift traffic and logistics models, thereby directly affecting the supply-demand balance in the air freight market.

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WeChat Official Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng