More and more e-commerce platforms are partnering directly with airlines. So, where does that leave air freight forwarders?

Steven Wang: Currently, e-commerce shipments have become the main source of cargo for international air freight, and airlines are raising their expectations for the future market. The annual BSA (Block Space Agreement) contract prices for European routes next year are approaching RMB 40 per kilogram, while U.S. routes are rising to around RMB 45 per kilogram. With the increase in BSA contract prices, the room for freight forwarders to profit from seasonal price differences is gradually shrinking, as e-commerce shipments don't experience significant seasonal fluctuations.

If air freight forwarders don’t sign BSA contracts at higher prices, they will face the challenge of lacking a stable supply of cargo. However, signing at high prices will subject them to immense financial pressure and the risk of market fluctuations.

As more e-commerce platforms sign direct agreements with airlines, the market share of air freight forwarders is continuously shrinking, and the trend toward disintermediation in the industry is becoming more apparent. The major beneficiaries of the growing demand for air freight driven by cross-border e-commerce are the airlines, leasing companies, and charter operators with long-term contracts and aircraft assets. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized freight forwarders, who lack core transportation resources, are being increasingly marginalized in the market. The entry barriers for air freight forwarders in terms of resources and capital are also rapidly increasing.

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