With the recent gradual recovery of the U.S. air cargo market, airlines’ high expectations are once again on the rise. Over the past three months, charter and block space freight forwarders have endured immense pressure, with many companies even losing most of the profits they earned last year. However, the recent short-lived rebound in the U.S. market has rekindled some confidence in the industry.  

For specialized product-based logistics companies, signing space agreements with airlines or charter operators ensures service stability and cost control, which is understandable. However, for pure air freight forwarding companies, now may not be the time to lock in too many space contracts. In a recovering market, whoever controls the cargo supply holds the pricing power.  

Therefore, in 2025, some freight forwarders may find that "running naked" (flexibly allocating resources without long-term space commitments) could be a viable strategy.  

The recent rebound in the U.S. market is primarily due to two factors:  

1. The release of backlogged shipping demand from February, concentrated in March.  

2. Some companies accelerating shipments before the new round of U.S. tariff increases took effect on April 2.  

However, the weak European market reflects an overall lack of demand, with ample available capacity.  

More critically, the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict could further reshape the market landscape. If Russia reopens its airspace to European airlines, belly capacity on China-Europe passenger flights will increase. Additionally, the stability of China-Europe trucking and rail freight services will improve, potentially diverting some cargo away from air freight.  

In such an environment, 2025 may favor companies with diversified business layouts—those involved in air freight, sea freight, overseas warehousing, or covering multiple markets such as the U.S. and Europe. These companies will have greater flexibility and resilience against risks. Conversely, companies with a single business focus may face greater challenges.  

Thus, in the market strategy for 2025, a moderate level of diversification may be the key to navigating uncertainties.  

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Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics OmniSage