In the 7th Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Trend Summit held on March 28th, Wang Yongqiang, founder of Baixiao Network/Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng, interpreted the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List and analyzed the development pattern and future trends of the cross-border logistics industry in 2024.

Analysis of the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List

During the selection process of the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List, 64 companies passed the preliminary screening, with a total annual revenue of nearly 150 billion yuan. The average annual revenue per enterprise was 2.279 billion yuan. Among them, there were 51 companies with cross-border e-commerce logistics as their main business, with a total annual revenue of 102.723 billion yuan and an average annual revenue per enterprise of 1.978 billion yuan.

In terms of the distribution of enterprise operating years (as of the initial screening in 2024), nearly half of the enterprises have been in operation for more than 10 years, and 43.75% of enterprises have been in operation for 4-9 years. In terms of the distribution of enterprise team size (as of the initial screening in 2024), companies with more than 500 employees accounted for one-third. Among them, more than 90% of the top ten comprehensive strength enterprises and FBA logistics enterprises have a personnel scale of over 500 and 200 respectively.

Ten cross-border logistics leading enterprises, ten FBA logistics leading enterprises, five most promising small packet line enterprises, five most potential overseas warehouse enterprises, five innovative leading enterprises, and six industry rookies were selected.

(1) Top Ten Comprehensive Strength Enterprises

The total annual revenue of the top ten comprehensive strength enterprises is 61.8 billion yuan, with an average annual revenue of 6.188 billion yuan per enterprise. In terms of revenue composition, 77% of the revenue comes from the European and American markets, which is basically consistent with the pattern of cross-border e-commerce. Compared with the top ten comprehensive strength enterprises in the 2023 Xiaosheng Ranking List, the total annual revenue of the top ten comprehensive strength enterprises in the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List increased by 37.38% year-on-year, showing a strong reversal! The average growth rate of enterprises on the list is 64.11%, with rapid growth of leading enterprises, and the trend of industry concentration is more obvious.

(2) Top Ten FBA Logistics Enterprises

The total revenue of the top ten FBA logistics enterprises on the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List was about 13.067 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.96%. Among them, the revenue share from the European and American markets reached 98.27%. Among the top ten enterprises, there are many companies with annual revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, but the number of companies with revenue exceeding 2 billion yuan is relatively small, indicating that the competition in the FBA format is still fierce.

(3) Five Most Promising Small Packet Line Enterprises

The total revenue of the five most promising small packet line enterprises in 2023 was 7.379 billion yuan, with an average annual revenue of 1.476 billion yuan per enterprise. Sixty-five percent of the revenue came from the European and American markets. In 2023, there was a significant industry pattern change in the small packet line industry. The head players of the small packet line industry have become huge, and e-commerce platforms segment procurement resources, leading to the flow of goods to infrastructure service providers. Many original small packet line companies have become service providers that provide infrastructure or transportation services for platforms at a core node of the entire chain.

In addition, according to data from 17TRACK, the world's largest parcel tracking platform, among the top ten countries in terms of parcels exported from China, the United States ranked first, accounting for 39.29%. The share of parcel volume from the top ten countries in terms of parcel volume exported from China from 2020 to 2022 has continuously increased from 75.55% in 2020 to 78.88% in 2023.

(4) Five Most Potential Overseas Warehouse Enterprises

The total annual revenue of the five overseas warehouse-listed companies was 4.296 billion yuan, with an average annual revenue of 859 million yuan per enterprise. In the past two years, the destocking in European and American countries has not ended, and many overseas warehouse companies are reducing costs. The area of overseas warehouses has not increased significantly, and there have been no large-volume new players in the industry.

(5) Innovative Leading & Industry Rookies

The total annual revenue of the five innovative leading enterprises is 46.999 billion yuan, with an average annual revenue of 9.4 billion yuan per enterprise; the total annual revenue of the six industry rookie enterprises is 1.476 billion yuan, with an average annual revenue of 200 million yuan, indicating high growth potential.

In addition, 23 companies were shortlisted for the 2024 Xiaosheng Ranking List, with a total annual revenue of 10.7 billion yuan.

It is predicted that there will be a certain tension in the supply of industry resources in 2024, and third-party overseas warehouses may usher in a new round of investment frenzy. First, due to the long cycle of aircraft production and delivery, the structural tension in air cargo capacity cannot be improved in the short term; Second, e-commerce platforms have launched semi-managed models, and merchants need to prepare goods to third-party overseas warehouses in advance. Maritime demand began to rise linearly from March, maritime freight volume rebounded, and maritime freight rates rose again; Third, Amazon's sub-warehouse policy requires Amazon sellers to prepare goods to FBA warehouses closer to consumers for fulfillment services, which greatly increases the inventory volume and turnover funds that sellers need to reserve.

Interpretation of Industry Development Trends in 2024

Many people believe that the end of the epidemic means the end of the dividend of the cross-border logistics industry. However, the epidemic is just the beginning of the industry dividend. The next 5 to 10 years will be a good opportunity and starting point for China's excellent e-commerce logistics model to be globally replicated. Against the background of going global, the future development of the cross-border logistics industry will present the following trends: 

(1) Direct Full Cargo Flights:First, China's cross-border e-commerce exports require a demand for air cargo capacity of no less than 10,000 tons per day, accounting for about one-third of the overall capacity supply of wide-body cargo aircraft globally; Second, the era of normalized fixed-frequency full cargo aircraft operations for cross-border e-commerce has arrived. For example, there are seven daily flights of e-commerce full cargo aircraft from China to Liege, Belgium; Third, the increase in the supply of wide-body cargo aircraft capacity cannot keep up with the growth rate of cross-border e-commerce parcel volume, and the continued growth of cross-border e-commerce parcels reshapes the global air cargo industry landscape. 

(2) Injection of Multiple Ports: With the continuous increase in the order density of target market regions, it is gradually possible to inject parcels into multiple points, reducing transfers and distribution, and reducing costs. In the past, parcel customs clearance ports in the United States mainly concentrated on the East and West coasts. Now there are multiple ports for direct injection, as are ports in Europe. In the future, with the increase in order parcel density, more wide-body full cargo aircraft will fly to the Midwest of the United States and even more remote airports in Europe and America for customs clearance. At the same time, the construction of airport-side customs supervision warehouses, customs clearance licenses, and the construction of port hub transit distribution capabilities in core port cities in mainstream market countries will become increasingly important. 

(3) Regionalized Delivery: China's export cross-border e-commerce is driving the formation of e-commerce express delivery networks worldwide, with about 20 million parcels being delivered every day. Existing commercial express networks and postal delivery networks are actively embracing the trend of e-commerce, and infrastructure is being transformed into e-commerce; The increase in order density in a single regional range has led parcels to shift from national hub distribution to regional hub distribution, forming regionalized delivery. 

Against the backdrop of structural growth in cross-border e-commerce logistics, platform segment procurement will enable infrastructure service providers at core nodes of the entire chain to have greater development space; the implementation of full-managed and semi-managed models will lead to an increase in maritime freight volume in 2024, and demand for third-party overseas warehouses will increase; a wave of overseas localization infrastructure construction has begun, and the layout of hubs, flights, trucks, warehouses, and delivery nodes around the world will become the focus of investment in the next 5 to 10 years.

 Therefore, today's Chinese companies going global are not only about commercial flows going global but also about logistics going global. When China's e-commerce platforms become world-class platforms, the leading enterprises in cross-border logistics are expected to become world-class cross-border e-commerce logistics companies. In the next 5 to 10 years, the main theme of the cross-border logistics industry is to go global. The question for cross-border logistics companies going global is no longer a choice but a must, and cross-border logistics companies will gradually transform from integrating resources to being resource providers. 

Baixiao Network not only aims to be an information hub for the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry but also aims to become a global resource hub for cross-border logistics. Therefore, at the 7th Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Trend Summit, we released the Global Cross-border Logistics Resource Directory 1.0 version, covering about 60 companies with overseas infrastructure, warehouses, trucks, and customs clearance licenses. In the future, Baixiao Network will continue to deepen communication and cooperation with more companies that have infrastructure layouts overseas, continuously expand the map of globalized cross-border logistics resource directories.

 With the new wave of global logistics infrastructure construction and reconstruction brought about by cross-border e-commerce, we hope to become a resource hub and super link for the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry, connecting more high-quality resources for our peers. We are willing to develop together with everyone and help more overseas companies enter the Chinese market!