Many logistics companies have felt the restrictions that platform policies impose on their growth, and some platforms have even started to build their own logistics capabilities in certain regions. This poses a potential crisis for logistics companies: their biggest customer, the e-commerce platform, could become a competitor threatening their survival.

How will cross-border e-commerce platforms' logistics development evolve in the future? What opportunities and challenges does this bring to cross-border logistics companies?

The difficulty of building cross-border e-commerce logistics is much higher than domestic logistics. Domestically, China is a unified market with high order density and relatively concentrated population distribution, making self-built logistics more feasible. For example, Cainiao and JD Logistics are both platform-operated logistics networks within China. However, overseas markets are still in the early stages of investment, and many companies are exploring and experimenting. Moreover, cross-border logistics involves multiple countries, each with its own unique infrastructure, customs, and tax systems, making it difficult to implement a unified logistics layout across countries, unlike the integrated logistics networks that can be established within China.

Take Amazon's self-operated logistics as an example. FBA currently covers just over ten major countries, largely because establishing warehouses overseas takes a long time and involves challenges such as recruitment, management, local fulfillment, and resource integration. The complexity and management difficulties are high, requiring strict coordination of resources. For most e-commerce platforms, the timeline for building logistics systems across multiple countries globally is long and demands huge investments.

So, what will cross-border e-commerce platforms do next?

First, platforms may build localized logistics fulfillment systems in regions with high order density within major markets. For example, Amazon has already started last-mile delivery in the U.S., integrating FBA warehouses with its last-mile logistics network to achieve seamless warehouse-to-door delivery.

In non-core markets and emerging markets, where order density is relatively low in the early stages, platforms are more likely to engage in deep, long-term partnerships with stable third-party logistics providers. After all, order density dictates how much resources and capital will be invested.

In the long run, the cross-border logistics market will likely see a mix of e-commerce platforms’ localized logistics fulfillment systems in major markets alongside third-party logistics solutions, creating a landscape where competition and collaboration coexist.

At the same time, we should note that the long-term, capital-intensive infrastructure development for cross-border logistics has just begun, and the difficulty of investment is much higher than for domestic logistics.

China’s rapid economic growth has largely been driven by government investment in infrastructure, including roads, railways, airports, and telecommunications. These infrastructure investments, made by the government and used by enterprises, reflect China's unique historical circumstances. This large-scale infrastructure development has provided domestic e-commerce logistics with the benefits needed for rapid growth.

In contrast, cross-border logistics face a different reality. Many overseas countries have outdated logistics infrastructure, and few governments have the financial capacity to invest in updating or expanding local infrastructure. Even the U.S. faces these challenges. Very few overseas countries have the same level of developed infrastructure that companies in China enjoy. As a result, cross-border logistics growth overseas will be relatively slow and will require significant investments in time, money, and resources. The challenges are much greater than what’s seen in domestic logistics.

For cross-border e-commerce platforms, building cross-border logistics infrastructure requires careful consideration. For cross-border logistics companies, this represents both an opportunity and a challenge, as companies differ widely in terms of resource availability, localized fulfillment capabilities, and industry experience in different countries.

We hope that the future of cross-border e-commerce logistics will see a strong integration of commerce and logistics, fostering a flourishing industry ecosystem, rather than platforms limiting the development space available to logistics companies.

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Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng