At the start of 2025, the U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese goods have had a profound impact on the global air cargo market. In the short term, air freight rates on the China-U.S. routes have dropped, and the surplus capacity has been redirected to other routes, causing global air freight rates to decline further. Meanwhile, with the rapid growth of the cross-border e-commerce industry, the semi-managed model of "sea freight + overseas warehouses" has become mainstream, presenting both challenges and opportunities for the air freight market.

In 2024, the average air freight rate for routes to Europe and the U.S. remained above 40 RMB/kg throughout the year. However, at the beginning of 2025, rates on many Europe and U.S. routes have dropped below 20 RMB/kg, with some newly opened routes even seeing single-digit low prices due to competition for goods. It is expected that air freight rates in 2025 will return to pre-2020 levels: around 10 RMB/kg during the off-season and over 30 RMB/kg during peak season, with an annual average of around 20 RMB/kg.

This significant drop in freight rates offers new choices for cross-border e-commerce sellers. Especially for Amazon sellers or those shipping from overseas warehouses, stability in the supply chain has become a crucial factor amid increasing tariffs and external uncertainties. Shipping smaller batches by air to the U.S., with formal customs clearance and tax payment, followed by frequent restocking to overseas warehouses or FBA warehouses, has become an effective strategy to reduce supply chain fluctuations and mitigate inventory risks.

In 2025, the strategy of "small batches, high frequency, and fast turnover" will become vital for many small and medium-sized sellers to withstand industry uncertainties. As the demand for fast fulfillment and delivery rises, air freight will meet this need. Moreover, with current air freight rates being more affordable, more sellers are likely to reconsider using air freight channels.

This trend could lead to changes in the structure of goods in the air freight market: the proportion of parcels may decrease, while the share of palletized or carton shipments may increase. FBA air freight channels may reappear on the pricing sheets of first-leg logistics companies, becoming an important part of cross-border e-commerce logistics solutions.

Although the drop in air freight costs provides sellers with new options, the "sea freight + overseas warehouses" semi-managed model will continue to be the main driver of growth in the future. This model offers significant advantages in terms of cost and stability, especially for larger goods and long-cycle restocking needs.

In 2025, the air freight market is set to experience new growth opportunities amidst declining rates. Cross-border e-commerce sellers can flexibly choose between air freight, sea freight, or mixed models according to their needs, to adapt to the complex and ever-changing market environment.

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Official Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng