Currently, e-commerce cargo accounts for about two-thirds of air cargo exports from China, and many cargo operators are using this demand to push for higher contract rates for next year.

A Shanghai-based freight forwarding company stated, “We’re in the peak season for air freight. Rates to Europe and the U.S. have already surpassed last year’s record highs. This isn’t surprising, as the main driver is e-commerce, which may now account for two-thirds of total cargo.”

According to WorldACD data, as of December 1st, global air freight rates rose by 2% weekly, reaching $2.84 per kilogram, the highest level this year. Spot rates increased by 3%, with the Asia-Pacific region up 4% and North America up 3%. Asian markets, in particular, saw significant week-on-week increases, including Mainland China ($5.10/kg, +7%), Hong Kong ($6.25/kg, +9%), Japan ($4.97/kg, +6%), South Korea ($5.49/kg, +6%), Taiwan ($4.07/kg, +5%), and Vietnam ($4.88/kg, +3%). These increases far exceed last year’s levels, with year-over-year growth in Japan and Vietnam exceeding 30%, and Taiwan experiencing a 46% rise.

A freight forwarder from China stated, “Capacity is tight, airports are crowded, and demand may ease temporarily, causing rates to dip in the short term, but they’re likely to rise again soon. With Chinese New Year falling on January 28th, a significant amount of goods will need to be shipped. Moreover, cargo operators are leveraging the expected capacity crunch next month, driven by new U.S. tariffs, East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes, and major shipping companies adjusting their flight schedules, to push up contract rates.”

Currently, annual Block Space Agreement (BSA) rates for major operators to Europe have seen substantial increases, with rates rising by more than $1.40 per kilogram compared to 2024. This marks the highest rates in many years.

CargoFacts Consulting noted that the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports expected in early 2025 will likely trigger a wave of pre-tariff purchasing, as companies rush to stockpile goods, leading to a surge in demand during the first quarter. This buying spree will place additional strain on logistics networks, further squeezing air cargo capacity and driving up rates. At the same time, the long-term trend of manufacturing shifting to Southeast Asia is reshaping trade routes and demand patterns, further affecting capacity allocation and pricing strategies.

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Air Freight Officer at Xeneta, observed that the air cargo market has learned lessons over the past few years. “We’re witnessing a more mature air cargo market, with more reasonable resource allocation and better terms and conditions between parties. In contrast, the capacity shortages and skyrocketing rates during the 2023 peak season were at the expense of shippers’ interests.

Currently, the global air cargo industry is experiencing rapid growth but remains under control. In 2024, the industry showed strong maturity. Whether this can be sustained into 2025 or beyond remains to be seen.”

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WeChat Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng