2024 was a year of significant transformation in the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry. Whether it was the full or semi-managed models of e-commerce platforms causing industry shocks and reshaping the landscape; the temporary tightness in air and sea freight capacity along with changes in industry ecosystem and resource positioning; or the rapid development of the overseas warehouse market, with both opportunities and challenges in the last-mile market abroad—2024 witnessed dramatic shifts.

Looking forward to 2025, I would like to share some trends and perspectives for the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry in the new year.

Air Cargo Development Trends

In 2025, air cargo capacity constraints and rate fluctuations will continue to be prominent issues. Reflecting on 2024, the rise of e-commerce platforms led to explosive growth in air cargo demand, especially as platforms like SHEIN and Temu generated a massive volume of cross-border e-commerce parcels, creating enormous demand for air cargo capacity.

Looking ahead to 2025, as the global e-commerce market continues to expand, the demand for air cargo will remain strong, particularly for high-value, time-sensitive products like electronics and fashion accessories, which heavily rely on air freight. However, the supply of capacity will increase relatively slowly, maintaining the severe contradiction between supply and demand in the air cargo market.

Regarding air cargo rates, although airlines have clear expectations of rate increases, e-commerce platforms will continue to prioritize cost-effective logistics solutions. Due to cost control by e-commerce platforms and market competition, there will be limited room for rate hikes. To reduce costs, e-commerce platforms are likely to deepen direct cooperation with airlines, negotiating long-term contracts, optimizing space allocation, and controlling traffic to stabilize market rates.

Sea Freight Development Trends

Under the semi-managed model of cross-border e-commerce platforms, the "sea freight + overseas warehouse" model has been thoroughly tested and promoted, with 2024 marking a year of rapid growth in demand for overseas warehouses. As the demand for overseas warehouses continues to rise, sea freight, as the primary mode of transporting goods from China to overseas warehouses, will become even more important. Therefore, in 2025, the share of sea freight express vessels in cross-border e-commerce logistics’ primary route transportation is expected to increase further.

Cross-border Direct Express Line Development Trends

Currently, the cross-border direct express line market faces several challenges, such as the bottleneck in air cargo capacity development and the impact of changes in e-commerce platform policies on direct express logistics models.

Looking ahead to 2025, cross-border direct express companies must actively adapt to market changes. On one hand, they need to recognize the market demand slowdown due to the growth of the full-managed model of e-commerce platforms reaching its peak. On the other hand, direct express lines still have opportunities for specific categories and markets. These companies can cater to vertical market clients by offering customized and differentiated logistics solutions.

To address air cargo capacity issues, direct express companies will strengthen in-depth cooperation with airlines to secure more stable capacity resources. Meanwhile, they will leverage big data analysis to optimize transportation routes, improving efficiency and reducing costs. For example, by analyzing consumer habits, logistics infrastructure, and other factors in different countries and regions, they can select the most optimal transport routes and delivery methods.

Overseas Warehouses and Last-Mile Delivery Development Trends

The demand for overseas warehouses will continue to grow rapidly in 2025. The development of the semi-managed model will drive more factories to store goods in overseas warehouses, enabling multi-platform and multi-channel sales. Overseas warehouse companies will continue to enhance service capabilities by introducing intelligent warehouse management systems and hardware and software facilities, optimizing inventory management, and improving storage and sorting efficiency. For example, automated warehouse operations using robotics technology will reduce human errors and speed up inventory turnover.

Overseas last-mile delivery presents both opportunities and challenges. With the increasing number of e-commerce parcels, the market potential is enormous. Chinese companies, leveraging their experience in domestic e-commerce logistics, are expected to capture a certain share of the overseas market. However, the complexity of foreign markets, including cultural differences, legal regulations, and labor costs, poses challenges for businesses.

To adapt to foreign markets, companies need to focus more on localized operations. They must understand local consumer needs and cultural habits, plan delivery networks efficiently, and improve delivery efficiency. At the same time, they should strengthen partnerships with local businesses, such as retailers and community service agencies, leveraging their resources and channel advantages to achieve mutual development.

Trends in E-commerce Platform Full and Semi-managed Models

The full-managed model of e-commerce platforms has driven rapid development in cross-border e-commerce logistics in the past but now faces growth bottlenecks. In 2025, the semi-managed model will become a major direction of development. In this model, factories will directly store goods in overseas warehouses, and e-commerce platforms will have more control over logistics processes, offering deeper disaggregated services for overseas warehouses and utilizing big data and AI to gain better insights into inventory data. This will allow real-time monitoring and optimization of the entire logistics chain. For example, by predicting sales data, platforms can arrange transportation and warehousing in advance, reducing inventory accumulation and logistics delays. Additionally, platforms will select high-quality suppliers for segmented procurement of logistics services, improving service quality and efficiency.

Industry Consolidation Trends in Cross-border Logistics

Currently, the cross-border logistics industry is highly fragmented, with many companies. In 2025, the trend toward industry consolidation will accelerate. Large logistics companies will leverage their resource, scale, and financial advantages to consolidate small and medium-sized logistics companies in vertical and niche markets through acquisitions, optimizing resource allocation. For example, large freight forwarding companies may acquire small freight forwarders with specialized services or regional advantages, expanding their business scope and increasing market share.

The development of e-commerce platforms will also drive the rapid consolidation of the cross-border logistics industry. To improve logistics service quality and efficiency, e-commerce platforms tend to cooperate with large, comprehensive logistics companies. This will encourage small logistics companies to seek cooperation or consolidation with larger companies to gain more orders and development opportunities.

Conclusion

The cross-border e-commerce logistics industry will undergo profound transformation and flourish in 2025. Air cargo will seek sustainable development amid challenges, while sea freight, with its cost advantages and technological innovations, will play a key role. Cross-border direct express lines will compete through more precise customer demand targeting and service upgrades. Overseas warehouses and last-mile delivery will tap into the potential of localized operations. The evolution of e-commerce platforms' full and semi-managed models will drive continuous innovation and upgrades in logistics services. Industry consolidation will lead to optimized resource allocation, improving overall industry efficiency and competitiveness.

Despite the challenges ahead, as long as industry players actively adapt to changes and innovate, they will be able to seize opportunities in the 2025 cross-border e-commerce logistics market and realize their value, helping the industry move towards a brighter future! Let’s look forward to new breakthroughs and developments in the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry in 2025!

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The WeChat Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng