This trend is driven by the accelerated adoption of semi-managed models on e-commerce platforms and the impending deadline for the removal of the $800 tax exemption on direct-shipped e-commerce parcels by air. As a result, more and more sellers are considering the overseas warehouse model for multi-channel inventory distribution. This has also led to a rapid increase in demand for drop shipping from overseas warehouses.

However, with a growing number of sellers entering the overseas warehouse market, it is worth considering whether a temporary bubble might form. In the first half of 2025, many companies will focus on establishing new warehouses overseas or expanding existing ones. By the second half of the year, with a large number of new warehouses coming into operation, overseas warehouses will face a new wave of price wars. To attract customers, many new warehouses may offer incentives like waiving first-leg shipping fees or providing a few months of free rent to lure sellers into storing their goods. Since new warehouses will continue to enter the market each month, this could lead to intensified price competition, causing short-term market fluctuations and creating a temporary state of chaos.

The future development of overseas warehouses will be characterized by scale, automation, and vertical specialization. Leading companies will leverage the advantages of forming warehouse clusters or integrated warehousing and distribution services, while investing in intelligent equipment within warehouses to enhance efficiency. Improving operational efficiency will be key. Mid-sized companies will focus more on differentiation in specific regions or markets, or on targeting specific product categories and industries for outbound shipments, offering refined customer segmentation. For example, specializing in large home furnishings, appliances, outdoor equipment, and energy storage products will open up many opportunities in these niche markets.

For small-scale family-operated warehouses, although their capacity is limited, there is still significant room for growth in providing customized services for certain clients. Customization and differentiated services are well-suited to the “small but beautiful” operational model of small overseas warehouses, meaning that overseas warehouse businesses of various sizes will have different focuses in terms of market positioning.

However, the common challenge faced by companies is the shortage of skilled professionals. While it is relatively easy to set up a warehouse, the lack of skilled professionals in the cross-border e-commerce and logistics sectors makes recruitment challenging. Finding suitable and reliable talent is especially difficult. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence and robotics, the future key investment area for overseas warehouses may shift towards automation and unmanned operations. Building intelligent unmanned warehouses will become a crucial challenge for the industry.

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