On April 2 (local time), former U.S. President Donald Trump announced the imposition of “reciprocal tariffs” on trade partners at the White House. The policy will take effect at midnight on April 9, imposing a base tariff rate of 10% on all countries, with a 34% tariff specifically targeting Chinese imports. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia will also face additional tariffs ranging from 30% to 40%, effectively closing the door on the common workaround of rerouting goods through Southeast Asia.

Goods under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) are exempt from this round of tariff hikes. For now, shipping through Canada or Mexico to the U.S. seems like a potential path to explore. However, customs clearance in Mexico is extremely complicated and costly — with many shipments relying on "gray customs clearance" methods — making re-exporting from Mexico to the U.S. far from straightforward.

In contrast, transshipping via Canada is theoretically viable. One could first ship goods to Canada by sea or air, then transport them to the U.S. However, Canadian airports and ports have limited handling capacity. Historically, many shipments destined for Canada would first arrive in the U.S., then be trucked north. Now, with the flow reversed and a surge in U.S.-bound shipments expected, the sheer volume may severely strain Canada's logistics infrastructure. Still, there may be some short-term opportunities here.

Interestingly, some Middle Eastern and South American countries are emerging as tariff havens amid this policy shift. Does this suggest a future migration of manufacturing capacity to South America? This would align with Trump’s broader “manufacturing reshoring” strategy — where high-end manufacturing returns to the U.S., and low-end manufacturing shifts to Mexico and South American countries. This would form a regionally-cycled supply chain and a nearshoring industrial outsourcing system, accelerating the localization and regionalization of global supply chains.

Adding to the blow, the original $800 duty-free threshold for U.S. imports has officially been scrapped. Although the change is delayed until May 2, all direct-to-U.S. small parcel shipments will be subject to tariffs thereafter. Parcels via postal services will be taxed at 30% of their declared value, or a flat $25 per package, which increases to $50 per package after June 1.

This dramatically raises the tax burden on direct-to-U.S. small parcel shipments, especially via postal channels, which are now effectively blocked. Cross-border sellers relying on platform-managed categories and direct-shipping small parcels have only one month to adapt their logistics model.

The implementation of these reciprocal tariffs and the end of the $800 de minimis exemption will have long-term and far-reaching impacts on the cross-border e-commerce ecosystem. In the short term, the industry faces immense challenges. But in the long run, trade wars have no real winners — the increased tariffs will likely fuel higher inflation in the U.S., driving up domestic prices. Whether American consumers can bear the rising costs, and whether this will influence future policy directions, remains a key question to watch.

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