1. New U.S. Tariff Policy

Recently, the U.S. government announced a series of new tariff measures and confirmed the end date for Chinese goods to benefit from the *de minimis* exemption policy. On what the U.S. government calls “Liberation Day,” it declared a 10% general tariff on all imported goods entering the United States, with higher tariffs imposed on goods from specific countries.

A chart showing the tariff adjustments by country reveals that imports from mainland China will face a 34% tariff, the EU 20%, Vietnam as high as 46%, and Taiwan 32%. These differentiated tariffs take effect on **April 9**, while the unified 10% general tariff was implemented on **April 5**, leaving very little time for negotiations between the U.S. and affected countries.

According to Flexport, the new tariffs on Chinese goods are being added on top of existing ones, including the *Section 301* tariffs, a 20% additional tariff implemented in early March, and the U.S.’s original baseline tariffs.

Just last week, the U.S. government also announced a **25% tariff on complete vehicles**, which has already taken effect. Additionally, a **25% tariff on auto parts** is scheduled to begin in **May**.

Moreover, the U.S. has already imposed a **25% tariff** on imports from Canada and Mexico that fall outside the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) framework.

2. Impact of Tariffs on the Air Freight Market

According to Xeneta, tariffs are not expected to immediately drive up air freight rates. However, rising product prices could suppress consumer demand, potentially leading to reduced shipping volume.

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, noted:  

 “We did observe some increase in airfreight rates from China and Europe to the U.S. in late March, but not to an alarming extent. It's more likely that if tariffs lead to higher prices and reduced consumer demand, airfreight rates might actually decline.”

He added:  

 “If consumers in affected regions grow increasingly anti-American due to tariffs, demand for U.S. exports could also drop. Sometimes, consumer sentiment has a stronger impact than the tariffs themselves.”

“Additionally, with many airlines launching their summer schedules, more capacity will be added to related routes in the coming weeks, further pressuring rates downward.”

According to Xeneta data:

- The current spot rate for air cargo from **Shanghai to the U.S.** is **$4.16/kg**, down from the peak of **$5.75/kg** during the week of November 10, 2023.

- From **Western Europe to the U.S.**, the spot rate is now **$2.16/kg**, also lower than the peak of **$3.51/kg** during the week of December 15, 2023.

U.S. retailers anticipate that tariffs will impact consumer purchasing power and warn that the sudden implementation could cause a range of problems.

David French, Executive Vice President of Government Relations at the National Retail Federation, stated:  

“Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers and will ultimately be passed on to consumers. Foreign countries or suppliers don’t bear the burden.”

He also emphasized:   “More seriously, the immediate implementation of these tariffs is a massive undertaking, requiring millions of U.S. businesses to be notified in advance and prepared accordingly.”

3. The Latest Announcement on the *De Minimis* Policy

Among the recent executive orders released by the White House, one focused on the update to the cancellation of the *de minimis* policy for Chinese goods.

Back in February, the U.S. had already attempted to eliminate the *de minimis* rule, which allows packages valued under **$800** to enter the U.S. duty-free and with simplified clearance procedures.

However, due to the massive volume of packages arriving from China daily and limitations in customs systems, the plan was postponed.

Now, the White House has issued a new update stating that the **cancellation of the de minimis policy for Chinese goods will officially take effect on May 2**. Packages sent via international postal networks will be subject to a different tax regime than other shipping methods.

The White House stated:  

“Packages not shipped via the international postal network and declared at $800 or less will no longer enjoy duty-free entry and must comply with applicable import and tax procedures.”

 “Packages sent **through the international postal network**, declared at $800 or less, and previously qualified for *de minimis*, will now be subject to **either a 30% ad valorem tax or a flat rate of $25 per package**, whichever is higher. (This amount will increase to $50 per package starting June 1, 2025.)”

 “This rate replaces all previous tariffs applied under the former policy.”

 4. Potential Impacts of the Policy Changes

The differing rules based on shipping method are expected to create a divide between small shippers and e-commerce giants like **SHEIN** and **Temu**. The latter, due to their massive shipping volumes, have the capability to charter aircraft and sign direct commercial agreements with airlines, giving them more control over logistics.

Whether the cancellation of the *de minimis* policy will significantly impact cross-border e-commerce air cargo volumes—which have fueled airfreight growth in recent years—remains a topic of debate.

Some in the industry believe the move will have a major impact, while others argue that the low price of these goods means that a few extra dollars in duties won’t drastically affect consumer purchasing decisions.

However, another perspective is that **the need for customs declarations and inspections for every package will delay delivery times**, reducing the overall shopping experience and thus diminishing consumer appeal.

This policy shift is also expected to **trigger adjustments in the e-commerce supply chain**. Chinese companies may pivot to more traditional distribution models and expand their presence in **overseas warehouses in the U.S.** to pre-stock inventory and mitigate customs delays, while also increasing reliance on **sea freight** to reduce costs.

Additionally, some companies may consider rerouting goods through countries still benefiting from the *de minimis* exemption, or using **transshipment via Mexico and Canada** to reach the U.S. market indirectly.

Despite these new policies dampening expectations for airfreight demand, another geopolitical development—if implemented—could boost freight volumes.

The **U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR)** has proposed a fee ranging from **$500,000 to $1.5 million per port call** on all **Chinese carriers or vessels**, or those fleets that include Chinese vessels.

Ocean carriers are expected to reduce port calls to avoid this steep fee, which may lead to **port congestion and supply chain delays** in the U.S.

Niall van de Wouw noted:  

 “If the U.S. imposes port call fees on Chinese vessels and this results in congestion in ocean shipping, shippers may shift more cargo to airfreight, which could have a much stronger impact on the air cargo market.”

It's worth noting that around 98% of global goods are transported via ocean freight, so even a small shift toward airfreight could have a significant ripple effect on the industry.

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Source: WeChat Official Account Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng