As May 2 approaches, the imminent enforcement of the cancellation of the $800 de minimis tax exemption in the U.S. has stirred unease throughout the air cargo industry. Back in early February, the U.S.-bound air cargo market already experienced a "storm" when Trump swiftly introduced a new tariff policy. The market was thrown into chaos almost overnight, and air freight rates plunged like a free fall. Numerous chartered flights by e-commerce platforms were abruptly canceled, and many industry players still vividly recall that moment of market meltdown triggered by sudden policy shock.

Now, with the removal of the $800 tax exemption and rising tariff costs, a decline in U.S.-bound air freight rates in the foreseeable future seems like a reasonable prediction. However, the current external environment remains complex and volatile, with high uncertainty surrounding tariff policies. Ironically, this uncertainty is prompting more sellers to adopt faster turnover strategies. To ensure timely delivery and fulfillment, they are leaning toward faster logistics solutions. This shift is directly boosting the demand for FBA air freight, and urgent restocking for overseas warehouses is also driving more consideration toward air transport.

Looking at it from another angle, while the cancellation of the $800 de minimis exemption has increased tariff burdens, if air freight rates can return to pre-2020 levels, the drop in trunk line airfreight costs could partially offset the erosion of seller profits caused by rising U.S. tariffs. In this scenario—tariffs up, freight rates down—the net result may be a cushion for sellers’ overall cost increases and may help maintain a degree of market balance amidst turbulence.

It’s also worth noting that the recent tariff hikes are not applied uniformly across all regions. Canada and Mexico have been granted some leeway, with goods traded under the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) still enjoying certain tax benefits. In recent weeks, we’ve clearly seen a significant increase in air and sea cargo volumes headed to Canada. On March 31, Zhejiang Province launched its second overseas air cargo station— the “Hangzhou–Vancouver” dedicated air cargo station—formally opened at Vancouver International Airport. Simultaneously, the corresponding “Vancouver MEGA–Hangzhou” cargo station was unveiled at Hangzhou Airport, marking a new model of mutual overseas cargo station cooperation between the two airports.

Each cargo route represents a complete supply chain. As flight frequencies increase, the air corridor between China and Canada is continuously expanding. Every takeoff and landing signifies more goods flowing between the two countries, injecting new energy into the development of cross-border trade.

In 2025, confidence is more valuable than gold for the entire industry. Faced with an ever-changing policy landscape and market uncertainty, industry players must unite and face the challenges together. Whether it's air cargo carriers, e-commerce sellers, or related service providers, all are striving to uncover new opportunities amid this wave of transformation.

Let’s move forward together, break new ground in this unpredictable year, and push the industry toward a more stable and resilient future!

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WeChat Public Account: Cross-border E-commerce Logistics Baixiaosheng