Currently, online platforms require transporting over 10,000 tons of goods daily, equivalent to the capacity of 100 Boeing 777 freighters. As global trade patterns shift, consumer habits evolve, and technology advances, air cargo companies are experiencing a significant increase in demand for freighter aircraft. But just how large is the global air cargo market, and will this growth trend continue?

1. Definition and Classification of Freighters

Air freight plays an indispensable role in global trade. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), air freight now transports goods valued at over $6 trillion annually, accounting for about 35% of the total global trade value. In 2024, air cargo revenue is expected to reach $120 billion, slightly below 2023’s $138 billion, but still higher than 2019’s $101 billion, exceeding the December 2023 forecast of $111 billion.

Freighters play a crucial role in air cargo transport. Currently, the world’s leading aircraft manufacturers are Airbus and Boeing. Depending on their purpose, cargo aircraft can be divided into full freighters and combination aircraft. Combination aircraft are standard passenger planes, with the upper deck (main deck) for passengers and the lower deck (belly hold) for cargo. Full freighters, on the other hand, are planes where the entire cabin is dedicated to carrying cargo. Based on fuselage size, full freighters can be classified as narrow-body or wide-body freighters.

Narrow-body freighters have a fuselage width of about 3 meters, with only one aisle, and generally carry smaller, loose-packed cargo in the lower cargo hold. Models include the MD-80, MD-90, A318, A319, A320, A321, B707, B717, B727, B737, and B757.

Narrow-body freighters offer several advantages, including flexibility, agility, lower operating costs, and adaptability to specialized cargo. They can operate from smaller airports and airspaces, expanding their reach to a broader range of destinations. Additionally, their smaller size typically means lower fuel consumption and maintenance costs, making them ideal for small-scale or specialized cargo transport that might not fill a wide-body freighter.

Wide-body freighters have a fuselage width of at least 4.72 meters and two aisles. The main deck can carry large containers. Examples include the B767, B777, B747, MD-11, A300, A310, A330, A340, and A380. The largest full freighters can carry up to 250 tons, with most large freighters having a payload capacity of around 100 tons.

For instance, the Boeing 777 freighter, popular among domestic airlines, has a maximum payload of 103 tons and a cargo volume of 650 cubic meters, making it suitable for long-haul international cargo flights and domestic long-range cargo routes. It can fly approximately 9,630 kilometers even when fully loaded.

The Boeing 747 freighter, a heavy-lift workhorse, is ideal for intercontinental bulk cargo transport, especially the 747-8F, which offers a larger cargo volume of 780 cubic meters and a payload of 130 tons.

The Boeing 767-300BCF, a smaller freighter, is suited for short- to medium-haul routes, often used for regional flights, with a payload of 51 tons and a cargo volume of 305 cubic meters.

As of June 2024, data shows that there are 631 active large freighters (747, 777, MD-11) globally. However, only 55 are based in mainland China (777, 747), compared to 272 in North America and 131 in Europe, indicating significant potential for growth in China's air cargo market.

2.Factors Driving Full Freighter Demand Growth

Since 2021, as airlines and logistics companies respond to shifting demands, full freighter orders have surged, with both established operators and new companies investing heavily in expanding their freighter fleets. The key drivers of this trend include:

E-commerce growth.

The explosive growth of e-commerce has transformed the air cargo industry, reshaping demand and spurring significant investments in air cargo capacity and technology. The mutually beneficial relationship between e-commerce and air freight has accelerated in recent years.

Boeing predicts that by 2026, global e-commerce revenues will reach $8.1 trillion, more than double pre-pandemic levels. E-commerce is driving massive demand for air cargo, with online platforms needing to transport over 10,000 tons of goods daily—the equivalent of 100 Boeing 777 freighters. This highlights e-commerce’s profound impact on global logistics. Over the next 20 years, 2,845 new freighter aircraft will be needed to meet the growing demand from global trade and e-commerce.

Leonard Rodrigues, Etihad Cargo’s Director of Revenue Management & Network Planning, emphasized that e-commerce growth is particularly driving demand on key routes, especially between China, Europe, and the U.S. This increases the need for large wide-body freighters, such as the Boeing 777F, Boeing 747F, and Airbus A350F, which are ideal for transporting large volumes of cargo on these routes. As a result, long-range wide-body freighters are becoming increasingly important in supporting the continued growth of global e-commerce logistics.

Aging fleet replacements.

Many air cargo companies are now facing the need to replace aging freighters. For example, the Boeing 747-400F is nearing the end of its lifecycle, and many freighters are expected to retire in the coming years, driving new orders. Aircraft manufacturers are also launching new freighter models to meet the evolving market demand, such as the Airbus A350F and Boeing 777-8F, both of which have generated significant interest since their introduction in 2021.

Currently, Airbus has received 55 orders for the A350F from customers including Etihad Cargo, Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific, and Starlux, with deliveries scheduled for 2026. Boeing has also secured 55 orders for the B777-8F from Qatar Airways, Silk Way West Airlines, Lufthansa Cargo, Cargolux, and ANA Cargo.

The B777F has captured a substantial market share, replacing the previously dominant B767 freighter. Boeing's order and delivery report shows that the B777F has received 353 orders, with 266 delivered to date.

From January to September this year, Boeing received 28 orders for the B777 freighter, nearly tripling the total for 2023 (10 orders), and delivered 11 aircraft to customers such as China Airlines, Qatar Airways, and MSC Air Cargo.

3. Future Challenges and Impact of Full Freighters

Although new models like the B777-8F and A350F offer advanced features, they are still in the development phase. Global supply chain disruptions, capacity limitations at air cargo hubs, rising fuel costs, and geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes present challenges to the future growth of full freighters.

Lufthansa Cargo has pointed out that while the B777 freighter is the only long-range wide-body freighter currently in production, next-generation freighters like the B777-8F and A350F will take years to be fully operational, slowing the retirement of older freighters like the 747-8F. The air cargo industry is actively seeking more sustainable solutions, with growing demand for efficient, fuel-saving aircraft. However, the lag in wide-body freighter supply remains a significant issue.

Rodrigues from Etihad Cargo also noted that a major challenge in the coming years will be a shortage of freighter capacity, as the rapidly growing e-commerce sector places immense pressure on existing resources.

In addition to e-commerce, the rise of express services is driving demand for smaller, more frequent cargo shipments, particularly on shorter routes. Narrow-body freighters are well-suited to meet this demand, offering greater flexibility for airlines in route planning and enabling them to serve smaller markets that do not require wide-body freighters.

While narrow-body freighters have clear advantages, they also face some challenges, such as smaller cargo holds that limit the types and quantities of goods they can transport, as well as smaller fuel tanks that restrict their range. Their smaller size may also result in higher operational costs per ton of cargo.

The surge in full freighter orders will have far-reaching effects on the air cargo industry.

First, it will impact the resilience of global supply chains. With more freighters entering service, companies may reassess their inventory management strategies, shifting from "just-in-time" to more robust, buffered models.

Second, the aircraft leasing market will become increasingly important. Lessors play a critical role in supporting the growth of the freighter market. Many operators of A320/A321P2F and A330P2F aircraft, such as IndiGo and Amazon Prime Air, have been supported by leasing companies.

Third, the increase in freighter capacity may affect belly cargo transport on passenger planes, as airlines may need to adjust revenue strategies to offset any reduction in cargo revenue.

Finally, the growth in cargo orders and freighter numbers will drive the development of specialized air cargo infrastructure at global airports. For example, Hong Kong International Airport processed 4.3 million tons of cargo in 2023, making it the world’s busiest cargo airport. Investments in world-class facilities and expanding cargo fleets underscore the importance of dedicated cargo infrastructure. As more airlines invest in freighters, we may see the emergence of more cargo-focused airports or terminals, creating new opportunities in aviation real estate and infrastructure development.

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Source: Cross-border E-commerce LogisticsBaixiaosheng